Without being asset-backed, has Bitcoin become an casino run by whales?

I've been watching bitcoin for a long time now, and every rally and decline seems to be outed as manipulation by whales who can move $100 million or more in a day. Makes me think the average investor, with no opportunity to base decisions on real-world factors, is just basically rolling the dice with bitcoin.

The house advantages in Vegas are:

Roulette: 5.26%
Craps: up to 16%
Blackjack: 1% or less if player knows basic strategy

I think the odds in Vegas are similar to, if not better than gambling on Bitcoin -- the 'house' in the case of Bitcoin being powerful manipulators of the currency. Curious what you guys think.

Comments

    ETHhupETHhup Reputation: 0
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    There is clearly some manipulation going on, but investing in BTC is not a blind gamble. There are trends and other data that give investors a better than 50/50 chance of profiting.

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    Hans2000Hans2000 Reputation: 0
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    Yeah you can not really look at it like a casino. That is a bit ridiculous. Conservative institutions and professional money managers are investing for the long term in bitcoin. These are not people who play around with money.

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    DNXDNX Reputation: 14
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    OP here. I see what you're saying that investing BTC is not purely chance and you can sort of use some traditional forecasting methods that apply to other securities. But I'm really talking about what seems to be a lot of people churn BTC almost everyday, buying and selling. This casino approach seems to be way more prevalent with cryptos because of the volatility.

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    MX10178MX10178 Reputation: 75
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    Maybe when the price was lower, but BTC is too big now to significantly and consistently manipulate it like you are describing. It would take a coordinated approach from several whales with absolutely massive holdings.

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    JDav19JDav19 Reputation: 1
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    @mx10178 true that it is harder when the price is high but a coordinated approach is exactly how they do it. Except for time they crashed it from $20k it's never enough to scare everyone off they have played everyone pretty much perfectly and continue to do it. Things are quiet now but we will see a new one before too long

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    BigfoodBigfood Reputation: 2
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    I think it is completely and totally manipulated because the rises and falls are timed exactly perfect to sucker in amateur investors at exactly the wrong moment then frustrate them into selling for a loss before doing it all over and over. It is definitely coordinated and somebody somewhere is just printing money

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    CharlieBCharlieB Reputation: 3
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    This article has some good info:
    https://www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com/crypto-market-manipulation/

    A few highlights:

    Basic Types of Market Manipulation
    Pump and Dump
    Wash Trading
    Long/Short Liquidation Hunting
    Whale Moves
    Dark Pool Trading
    Shilling
    Spoofing

    How to protect yourself

    "The good news is that if you are a long-term bitcoin investor and holder, these short-term shenanigans will likely not affect you in any way. If your adrenaline receptors are only tickled by thoughts of bitcoin’s price in 2025, market manipulation is of no concern to you. However, if you are a bitcoin trader, you are fully exposed to the possibility of market manipulation....Keep your eyes on the long and short positions and their ratio at your exchange. Fully expect a price dump or pump if that ratio begins to tip one way or the other."

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    JacklmmmerJacklmmmer Reputation: 1
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    This article is old but it talks about the small club of investors who own a large percentage of BTC. They can call and coordinate with each other before making big moves, and who knows if it's even illegal. To speculate in BTC you have to accept that it is not driven purely by market forces and any traditional fundamentals are out the window. So in that sense I would say it is even less reliable than a casino, where things are fair and the odds set. I would venture a guess that most BTC investors are in it for the thrill which is not good.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/the-bitcoin-whales-1-000-people-who-own-40-percent-of-the-market

    31e92586dca0b3179e72250e073edde4
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